2008 Archives
Slip Slidin' Away
January 2008
Dr. Hans Black
Looking back, it is now clear that for those who were willing to see, the intial evidence of the present global economic malaise were present in the early months of 2007, writes Dr. Hans Black. As the resulting volatility continues to expand in 2008, there will no doubt be more unpleasant surprises, but inevitably there will also be opportunities for those with cash in reserve.
An Eventful January
February 2008Dr. Hans Black & Malcolm Thomas
Five long weeks have passed since our last Newsletter – a period that will be remembered well by many market observers, characterised as it was by enormous volatility, a series of major policy and economic developments, US monoline insurance scares and yet another wave of huge credit write-downs by several of the world’s largest financial companies. Malcolm Thomas looks at January with a focus on G7 policies.
Mark to Madness
March 2008 Malcolm Thomas
Since July of 2007 credit markets have been in an increasing state of disarray.
In the current issue Dr. Hans Black examines the state of affairs in the credit markets and the full implication of the mark to market process on banks and other financial institutions.
Brief Loss of Confidence
April 2008 Dr. Hans Black
For a few brief moments in mid March, the world’s financial institutions held their breath and hoped for the best as one of the world’s largest investment banks collapsed and came close to taking others with it.
Void at the Bank of Japan
April 2008 Stan T. Schmidt
One of the world‘s largest central banks is currently leaderless as domestic political disputes in Japan have stymied the nomination process for a new head of the Bank of Japan.
18 Million and Counting
May 2008 Dr. Hans Black & Malcolm Thomas
The worst housing slump since the 1930’s is gradually engulfing the US economy and pushing it into a recession of unknown depth and duration. In 2007, many – including the Fed and the Bush Administration – believed that the weakness in housing would be sharp as excesses unwound, but also limited in its overall economy effect and importantly, that 2008 would see a gradual recovery. This has not occured.
Commodities Boom... and Bust?
June 2008 Salvatore Ruscitti
This month Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the spectacular run-up of commodity prices, particularly oil, over the last year and why he believes that far from based on fundamentals, it is a story of market distortions caused by indexing and speculation.
Little Safety in Big Caps
July 2008 Dr. Hans Black
This month Dr. Hans Black discusses some of reasons why large cap stocks have been struggling and the implications for investors in the small and mid-cap sectors.
Frugality Returns
August 2008 Dr. Hans Black
This month Dr. Hans Black discusses why consumers in the world’s leading developed nations have likely embarked on a more secular and serious downturn.
No Diet for Bold Men
September 2008 Salvatore Ruscitti & Dr. Hans Black
The not totally unexpected resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Fukuda over Labor Day weekend is examined in this month’s essay. Years of domestic political turmoil have once again exploded into the limelight and need careful monitoring.
A Global Banking... 911
October 2008 Salvatore Ruscitti & Dr. Hans Black
Dr. Hans Black summarizes the upheaval the banking sector has undergone in the past six months, and what the current consolidation trend will signify as increasingly larger liabilities are concentrated into only a few global institutions.