L'État, C'est Moi

June 2007 Alex Black and Nicholas Minns

The new president of France, Nicolas Sarkozy, has been basking in a wave of popularity following his election on May 6. After the polarized second round of voting, in which 47 percent of the electorate (roughly 17 million voters) supported his Socialist Party rival, Ségolène Royal, Mr. Sarkozy has gained broad approval with his hyperactive, media-enhanced, agenda. As he told reporters, “I will not act fast, I will act very fast.” In his first week in office, with preparations for upcoming labor summits, he visited Germany to discuss the European constitution with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and had discussions in Toulouse on the future of Airbus, thus giving a convincing show of following through on his election promises. Most impressively, in a carefully crafted bipartisan display, he unveiled a compact, centrist 15-member cabinet that includes no less than four socialist politicians (one of whom, Bernard Kouchner, is the Foreign Minister), and seven women, one of whom is France’s first ethnic minority minister, Rachida Dati, who is the new Justice Minister. For a president who campaigned on changing the way France does business, the makeup of this cabinet is highly symbolic. It has also given a black eye to the socialists, who unceremoniously dumped the popular Mr. Kouchner from the party. Enhanced by the media, Mr. Sarkozy’s flying start to his presidential term has sent the Socialists running for cover.

Within the Socialist Party itself there was no lack of disunity surrounding the leadership of Ségolène Royal, dating from the internal election of the presidential candidate last November until the party’s defeat on May 6, it’s third consecutive failure to regain the presidency. This does not augur well for the party’s chances for the parliamentary elections on June 10 and 17. During the campaign Ms. Royal was likened to a modern-day Joan of Arc, fighting the forces of the establishment and speaking out for the disenfranchised, but it is Mr. Sarkozy who has in effect made of his own UMP party the force for change. There is a certain irony here: the UMP has been in power for the last 10 years, and must therefore take some responsibility for the present circumstances. It is a mark of his consummate skill as a politician that Mr. Sarkozy is now on the verge of gaining a comfortable majority for his incumbent party with which to push through his reforms.

The segment of the population that overwhelmingly voted for Mr. Sarkozy is over 60, those who have most of their working life behind them, and where presumably most of the private wealth lies. The majority of those aged between 18 and 59, who stand to gain from a renewed French work ethic and whose taxes support the state, voted for Ms. Royal or at least against Mr. Sarkozy. This is hardly a new generation of voters demanding change but a new face on the old guard. In some respects Mr. Sarkozy reconnected with an older, perhaps Gaullist tradition that sees the uprising of May 1968 not only as a question of student riots, but as a whole negative change in the way France does business that has led to the present economic malaise.

The new president sees his new mandate in three stages: the first two years to pass the difficult reforms he sees as necessary to break with the past, including a showdown with the labor unions; the second two years to reinforce those reforms, and the fifth year to prepare for the reelection. Already he plans to take aim at dismantling the 35-hour workweek, eliminating payroll and income taxes on overtime, and to give state-run universities more autonomy. In all these measures he is striking at the socialist heart, and in doing so he will undoubtedly face fierce opposition.

There are deserved concerns about how Mr. Sarkozy will act under pressure and resistance. Much has been made of his short temper, although he was on his best behavior during the televised debate with Ms. Royal and won praise for his restraint despite her efforts to draw him out. For now his hard power style of governance appears tempered, as evidenced by his choice of cabinet. Indeed, in many of the positions where he is considered weak or where his own views are right of the mainstream, he has elected to put cabinet members in place who ought to moderate the government’s position and make Mr. Sarkozy more palatable to the centre. So for now his confrontational style has withdrawn into latency, in line with his acceptance speech in which he extolled the virtues of “tolerance, freedom, democracy and humanism.”

As for France’s place in Europe and the world, much has been made of the appointment of Mr. Kouchner as Foreign Minister. Highly respected for his humanitarian work as co-founder of Doctors Without Borders, and for his United Nations work in Kosovo, he is seen as an ideal promoter of the values of human rights and health that the president has espoused. Yet there are areas of potential conflict between the two men. Mr. Kouchner advocates the acceptance of Turkey as a new member of the European Union, while Mr. Sarkozy has made his opposition clear. Likewise their stance on the United States and its involvement in Iraq has not always been in agreement. Luckily for Mr. Sarkozy he will probably not have to make the same types of difficult decisions as Mr. Blair had to make on this issue simply because his term coincides less with that of the outgoing American president. Clever as he is, he will probably stay on the sidelines of this issue until the outcome of the American elections perhaps makes agreeing with the US less unpalatable for his electorate.

Political observers are left with an uneasy choice: do they believe the president’s recent posturing is a genuine change in behavior, or do they place more weight on historical evidence? Personality clashes and feuds are common in Mr. Sarkozy’s past, including widely publicized rifts within his party, especially with his former bosses, Messrs. Chirac and Raffarin. Someone of Mr. Sarkozy’s drive and ambition is not likely to remain restrained for long if his legacy and reputation are on the line and there are indeed many strong supporters strategically placed (important domestic ministerial posts at Interior, Immigration and Justice, are held by Sarkozyistes, including Brice Hortefeux who is perhaps his closest ally) to ensure a loyal following.

The major election issues of employment and the economy will be Mr. Sarkozy’s major test and undoubtedly where he takes the most control. When Prime Minister François Fillon said his aim was to shock the French economy into growth, which he has pledged to increase to 3 percent from the current 2 – 2.5 percent, he used the following motor sports analogy: “ France is a Formula One car. We need to drive it at full capacity to beat the international competition, while looking after its engine and making sure it doesn’t go off the road. We need to move very fast because France has fallen far behind.”

As both parties get back on the stump for the upcoming legislative elections, Mr. Sarkozy seems intent on minimizing the possibility of compromise by winning as large a majority as possible. Nevertheless, given that his economic policies will no doubt be a tough pill for some to swallow and that Ms. Royal and the opposition will aim to hinder his efforts along the way, his skill as a politician and the control of his emotions will be fully tested.