2007 Archives
Looking at '007
January 2007
Dr. Hans Black
Dr. Hans Black takes a look at issues that were brewing last year that could boil over into this year’s agenda and provide the driving forces for the markets. Some, like avian ‘flu, were on a low heat; others, like the weakness in US housing, the search for corporate profits in ever more risky ventures, and the geopolitical events in the Middle East, were already bubbling. Dr. Black finishes with three book recommendations.
20 Years Later
February 2007Dr. Hans Black, Malcolm Thomas
Seven years after the last major bubble, financial markets are again displaying signs of over-exuberance, reminiscent of an earlier time.
What A Difference A Day Makes
March 2007 Dr. Hans Black
Markets swooned at the end of February, but the underlying risks in the markets have yet to be addressed. Where do we go from here?
To Spread Or Not To Spread
April 2007 Dr. Hans Black
At the end of the first calendar quarter, all eyes will now be on signs of the extent of the subprime mortgage sector debacle.
Fireworks Ahead
May 2007 Rosalia Tan
Over the last year, the Shanghai Composite index has taken off from a level of just over 1180 at the start of 2006, to a gain of 3841 (or roughly 225 percent) at the end of April 2007. At the same time the level of public participation in the markets has also surged, seemingly indifferent to the various market controls effected by the Chinese central bank. When will this rocket return to earth?
L'État, C'est Moi
June 2007Nicholas Minns, Alex Black
The new president of France, Nicolas Sarkozy, has made a brilliantly orchestrated entrance on to the European stage, but can he deliver on his election promises?
Dazed And Confused
July 2007 Dr. Hans Black
Dr. Hans Black focuses on the cracks that have appeared this year in two segments of the markets that may well daze and confuse investors: the repercussions of the subprime mortgage debacle, and the growing use, especially by hedge funds, of collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). Prompted by the fallout from these two phenomena, private equity firm Blackstone advanced its IPO. Coincidence?
Down But Not Out...Yet
August 2007 Rosalia Tan
After the defeat of the ruling LDP in the upper house elections on July 29, Rosalia Tan wonders if the Japanese prime minister will alter his political agenda from constitutional revision to much needed economic reforms
Indiscriminate, Irrational & Illiquid Capital Markets
September 2007 Dr. Hans Black & Salvatore Ruscitti
Dr. Hans Black and Salvatore Ruscitti co-author an essay concerning the underlying factors contributing to the recent market turmoil. The problems that began with sub-prime have grown considerably and are on the verge of becoming a full throttle liquidity crisis. After several years, buyers of commercial paper are beginning to ask questions.
A View of Modern India
October 2007Dr. Hans Black
On a recent visit to India, Dr. Hans Black is struck by the sheer immensity of the country, both in size and contrasts.
On Toxic Waster And Other Matters
November 2007 Dr. Hans Black
Another credit monster rears its ugly head, which has set the major international banks and the US Treasury scrambling. Dr. Hans Black looks at the thorny issue of SIVs (Structured Investment Vehicles) and their soon-to-be-spawned offspring, the MLEC — otherwise known as the Master Liquidity Enhancement Conduit — as well as related credit issues.
The Bernanke Put
December 2007 Malcolm Thomas and Dr. Hans Black
The issue that Dr. Hans Black and Malcolm Thomas discuss is whether the Fed will cave in to the markets despite obvious moral hazard. Notwithstanding earlier expectations — even hopes — to the contrary, recent statements by senior US Federal Reserve officials suggest that things have changed little from the Greenspan era. And this time, the US Treasury seems likely to weigh in as well.