2003 Archives

Why We Remain Bullish

January 2003

Dr. Hans Black

While not wanting to play down the very real fears in the markets, Dr. Black argues that many sectors have now adequately discounted them.

Time Will Tell

February 2003Dr. Hans Black

The rise in the euro belies the potential conflicts within the European Union, especially with the coming inclusion of ten new countries.

Fukui, Iwata and Muto

March 2003 Dr. Hans Black

The new Bank of Japan governor may seem to suppport the status quo, but his two deputy governors may have a different agenda. Has Prime Minister Koizumi pulled off a crafty coup?

Crème Brûlée

April 2003 Dr. Hans Black

The recent spat between the United States and "old Europe" over the war in Iraq could well spoil the prospects for European union.

A Recurring Syndrome

May 2003 Dr. Hans Black & Nicholas Minns

An investigation into the history of influenza-like infections, from the Spanish flu of 1918 to the present outbreak of SARS. While the panic associated with SARS seems out of proportion to the numbers of deaths reported, the economic iimpact could be enormous for those regions most affected. Since viruses do not recognize borders, the cure for SARS will require a truly global collaboration.

What, Me Worry?

June 2003Dr. Hans Black

Bucking the trend of central banks in the U.S., Europe, and Japan, the Bank of Canada has until recently chosen to raise rates, with unintended consequences.

Head in the Sand

July 2003 Alex R. Black

The dependence of the U.S. on oil has led to the creation of a foreign policy in Iraq that could well be incompatible with the stated goal of promoting democracy.

Earnings Surprises

August 2003 Salvatore Ruscitti

Looking under the hood at the recent spate of upbeat earnings reports reveals some additional surprises.

Constant Worry

September 2003Dr. Hans Black

The appearance of a bull market is undermined by the influence of the increase in bond yields on mortgage refinancing and on the major financial institutions.

Madmen in Authority?

October 2003Dr. Hans Black

Dr. Hans Black discusses the background to the communiqué issued by the G7 Finance Ministers in Dubai and why this initiative may turn out to be misguided, with potentially painful implications for the world economy.

Serious Concerns

November 2003 Dr. Hans Black

The investigation into illegal trading in mutual funds has cast a shadow over the industry. Dr. Hans Black assesses the damage to investor confidence and its possible longer-term effects.

The Instability Pact

December 2003 Salvatore Ruscitti

Salvatore Ruscitti argues the markets have underestimated the consequences of the recent violation by France and Germany of the European Union's Stability and Growth Pact.